Ecommerce and online trading have been a part of modern people’s life for some years now. The amount of online transacations is increasing steadily. But so is the number of Internet fraud attempts and security threats. What implications will this have on the future of ecommerce?

There are numerous threats that puts the security of ecommerce and online trading at risk. Some of them are well-known, some are not even known yet outside the security community, as hackers are getting more and mores sophisticated. One of the most prevalent threats is the threat of phishing. According to the Gartner group the number of phishing attacks has increased with 28 % this year. The number of brands that were hijacked by phishing campaigns in August were 84 and the total number of unique phishing reports were almost 14 000 according to the Anti-Phishing Working Group. Statistics show a steady increase in number of attacks. And at the same time people do not seem to be fully aware of this threat. Warnings and information from security vendors and consultants have not had the desired effect and the users continue to open phishing emails and to give away sensitive information.

The high amount of phishing attacks has caused major financial loss for both clients and the responsible businesses. An estimated 2,42 million US adults report losing money because of phishing attacks. According to these victims, total financial losses this past year amounted to nearly 929 million US dollars. Gartner also emphasises that the financial loss is likely to be even higher than reported because many users are not even aware of the fact that phishing attacks are being launched against them.

Even though the threat of phishing seems to be the most prevalent at the moment, other unknown threats are still to come. The hackers will become more sophisticated and as the security community finds new ways to protect the users, the criminals will try to find ways to outmanoeuvre the security tools.

Two important factors make it worth questioning the future of ecommerce. One, the financial losses are huge, and regardless of whether it is the banks or the customers who have to pay, someone will get economically hurt. Two, the growing number of fraud attempts lead to a widespread scepticism and reluctance among users and customers. Gartner estimates that the growth rate of ecommerce will be up to 3 % lower than expected until 2008 because of the rising threats. If the threats continue to increase and develop the effect of the threats is likely to be even more significant. The challenge is to develop sophisticated and efficient security tools that will be able protect the users in the future. Meeting this challenge in a proper manner will undoubtedly be vital for the future of ecommerce.

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